Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
