Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
